If you’re like me, you are probably already starting to think about fresh powder runs, pristine groomers, and bluebird days with soft falling snow in the middle of summer. Which begs the question that many of us are probably wondering—what kind of winter are we going to get this season?

Some of us may turn to sources such as the Farmers’ Almanac to get an idea of how the impending snow season may turn out, and some of us just like to wait and see!

However, there may be a much better way to forecast the next winter season, and the keys to how we come to those conclusions lay in the hands of trade winds gusting warmer waters off the coast of South America and into the western Pacific. It has been an increasingly hot topic when it comes to conversations around environmentalism and climate change. We are learning more and more about how interconnected we all really are and how the effects of one part of the globe may lead to severe consequences on another.

Rainfall, flooding, drier conditions, droughts, and other more extreme weather have been popping up more and more on our daily news feeds. There's a lot of conversation about reducing consumption globally. Many states or countries are seriously drilling down on the number of carbon emissions that our planet can reasonably accommodate without total disaster.

You may wonder, what does this have to do with the next winter shred season? The answer is everything! Throughout this article, we will drill down on the concepts of cyclical weather patterns and how the best indicator of a great United States winter ski season can be accurately forecasted by paying close attention to the waters of the West Coast of Central and North America.

So what about “El Niño” or “La Niña”? What do these terms mean? And what do they mean for the 2023 snow season?

What Is the Difference Between El Niño and La Niña?

“El Niño” is widely used to describe the warming of sea surface temperature. It is part of the ocean’s natural cycle in the eastern Pacific. When an “El Niño” occurs, wind patterns shift, creating a larger surface level of warmer ocean water. This increase in temperature creates more unsettled weather patterns and can lead to overall hotter years around the globe.

“La Niña” is the name used to describe the opposite side of the fluctuation. This means we see cooler than average sea surface temperature in the Pacific. Consequently, the globe is better positioned to have a climate that favors snowfall!

The ocean's phenomenon can be called upwelling, defined as a process in which cold, nutrient-rich water from the bottom of an ocean basin is brought to the surface due to atmospheric effects such as wind.

Check out this great explanatory video if you want to get a better idea of how this all works, and if you want to keep reading more, National Geographic also has an excellent article on El Niños.

Now that we have a foundational understanding of what “El Niño” and “La Niña” mean, we can start to analyze how this year’s current pattern is trending and what that means for specific regions in the U.S. and Canada. Many of us are looking towards engaging in some mountain magic (aka sliding downhill at dangerous speeds over rocks and through trees for thrills we can not obtain in everyday societal life).

So, What Will the 2022/2023 Winter Season Look Like?

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Pacific Ocean is currently in a cycle of “La Niña,” with these conditions expected to last through the winter and slowly move towards a more neutral cycle towards Spring 2023.

The following is probably the most exciting graphic to share for what that means regarding snowfall during a “La Niña” cycle.

So let’s break down this graph a bit more. We have two images here. They are composite charts based on La Niña data from 1950 and its correlation with snowfall amount (anomalies) based on the average and frequency of snow (frequency) based on snowfall occurrence.

Our Anomalies graph shows us clearly that when there is a La Niña cycle in effect, we see much more snow in all our favorite places (i.e., mountains and ski resorts) out West and in my beloved region of the ice coast (the Northeast).

Our Frequency graph also shows us that when there is a La Niña cycle in effect, we see, on average, much more instances of snowfall in almost identical geographic locations.

This data makes me extremely happy, and I hope it does for you too! It is reasonable to expect to be getting more use out of your ski or snowboard gear this winter and to go forth and move toward that newer setup you may have been thinking about getting!

You may wonder, what if it had been an El Niño year or even a neutral year? What does the season look like in El Niño conditions?

We can take a moment to analyze the corresponding chart and discuss how El Niño events may differ in many factors from La Niña events.

Looking at the contrast of intensity here, it is clear that the correlations on average result in less overall snowfall and a shift in location when it comes to snowfall frequency.

If anyone is super nerding out on this stuff like me, it would be extremely fascinating to see how our equatorial Pacific Ocean affects the weather and snowfall in other regions of the globe, like Argentina, Chile, Europe, Indonesia, etc.

How Can We Predict These Cycles?

Predicting when the warmer waters of the Pacific will shift around has proven to be quite tricky for professional weather people. The current way we describe the duration of a cycle is by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). “Southern Oscillation” refers to atmospheric pressure changes between the east and west tropical Pacific.

The ENSO cycle is an alternate irregular inter-annual cycle, meaning that things will shift at least once or more than once a year and loosely around a seasonal calendar, with historical reporting benchmarking the start of El Niños at or around late December (Christmas time) or early February.

Thus, next time you're wondering what kind of winter will be heading your way, it may be worth asking: Is there warm water off the coast of Central America right now?

In Conclusion

Happily, this season is looking to be the opposite of a strong El Niño event, meaning we should be able to reasonably expect a good amount of precipitation in the form of luscious snow!

So if you want to make the most out of the ongoing dance happening in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, feel free to reach out to me or another winter sports Curated Expert to find the right gear for this season. Of course, we can help you prepare for any weather cycle, from heavy snow to just dustings!